Iran Update: Pushing the Global Envelope

A few things happened on Sunday; one I saw, the other I read about -- neither event surprising.

While watching Fox News Sunday, I listened to Senator John McCain (R, Arizona) say that he believed Iran's nuclear weapons program "is the most serious foreign policy crisis since the end of the Cold War. A nuclear capability in Iran is unacceptable."

Senator McCain said he agreed with the Bush administration's decision to press for sanctions against Iran before the United Nation's Security Counsel, saying the move would force Moscow and Beijing to choose sides. "If China and Russia want to be on record as being supportive of Iran in their nuclear ambitions, then I think that obviously has consequences as well."

McCain threw his hat into the energy independence ring as well: "We've got to get quickly on a track to energy independence from foreign oil. And that means, among other things, going back to nuclear power."

Israel Weighs In On Iran:

Despite Sharon's absence, Israel's defense minister hinted Saturday (01-21) that the Jewish state is preparing for military action to stop Iran's nuclear program, but said international diplomacy must be the first course of action.

"Israel will not be able to accept an Iranian nuclear capability and it must have the capability to defend itself, with all that that implies, and this we are preparing," Shaul Mofaz said. His comments at an academic conference stopped short of overtly threatening a military strike but were likely to add to growing tensions with Iran.

Sanctions and Oil:

McCain advocated energy independence (as should all logical Americans!) as oil and financial experts are quoted as saying: "Oil prices could soar past $100 a barrel, if the UN Security Council authorizes trade sanctions against Iran, which the West accuses of trying to make nuclear bombs, and Iran curbs oil exports in retaliation. A sharp global economic slowdown could follow." Just this past week, the price per barrel almost reached $70 on the heels of global concern about Iran's nuclear weapons program. Oddly enough, this one time no one in the global community "buys" Iran's bit about needing nukes for power.

But Iran would also pay a hefty price if the petro-dollars that now represent 80 percent of export revenues are reduced, potentially stirring civil unrest in a nation with a 14 percent unemployment rate.

''They would shoot themselves in the foot," said Mustafa Alani, director of national security and terrorism studies at the Dubai-based Gulf Research Center. ''It's one thing to test the market psychology, it's another to take the actual step and stop oil exports."

Bracing for sanctions, Iran's central bank said on Friday that it is moving its foreign currency reserves out of European banks.

Iran, the second-largest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, exports roughly 2.5 million barrels per day. It also controls the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping lane.

''Even if Iran pulled a small amount of its oil off the market, say it pulled a half million barrels a day, I could see oil prices literally jumping over the $100 per barrel mark," said James Bartis, a senior researcher at Rand Corp.

John Kerry: Amazing Silent On Iran? Here's Why:

Kerry went on another rant yesterday about President Bush's handling of the war on terrorism, and his so-called inept handling of North Korea's nuclear program. In retrospect, he didn't have much to say about Iran. As NewsMax.com wrote:

Probably because, had Kerry's previous advice on Iran been taken, the mullahs in Tehran would be even closer to obtaining nuclear weapons than they are now.

During his first debate against President Bush on Sept. 30, 2004, the Massachusetts Democrat actually said it would be a good idea for the U.S. to give Iran the fuel they needed to make a nuclear bomb.

The question from moderator Jim Lehrer: "Do you believe that diplomacy and sanctions can resolve the nuclear problems with North Korea and Iran?" Kerry's answer:

"With respect to Iran, the British, French, and Germans were the ones who initiated an effort without the United States, regrettably, to begin to try to move to curb the nuclear possibilities in Iran. I believe we could have done better."

The top Democrat then urged:

"I think the United States should have offered the opportunity to provide the nuclear fuel. Test them. See whether or not they were actually looking for it for peaceful purposes. If they weren't willing to work a deal, then we could have put sanctions together."

Another reason we are so very lucky one specific man currently occupies the White House.

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The bottom line: a showdown with Iran is coming; the global community appears, at this point, to be behind the US stance -- this week.