Egypt: Chaos and Prognostications

Egypt is in chaos. Cairo is burning and citizens are rioting.

Mubarak has been in power for roughly thirty years. The government is mostly secular. And perhaps therein lies the essential problem. The US has consistently supported Mubarak because he is not an Islamist. Now, the UK Telegraph says the US is "behind" Egyptian protests -- including, of course, a "secret document." All good conspiracies require a secret document.

On Friday, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak asked his cabinet to step down. He himself, of course, is not doing so. Mr Obama likewise made a miniscule speech (with perhaps less pancake makeup) which, in a nutshell, indicated he was "concerned" and "monitoring." Mr Obama "monitors" with "concern" when he doesn't know what to do with regard to international situations. His speech on Friday proffered naught but multisyllabic political phlegmic drivel.

Yoni the Blogger indicates there is unrest in Jordan, unrest in Yemen, all over the Middle East. I'll take the liberty of reproducing his complete blogthoughts on Egypt here:

The Game Is Over

Egypt, Tunisia, Jordan,Albania, Lebanon,Yemen.

Something is happening and it has the possibility of being a game changer.

Too long America has backed evil tyrants in exchange for cheap oil, that may be coming to an end. The people rise up and the tyrant is gone, more than likely they will meet an end similar to the Romanov's .

But then what?

Do the people of Egypt, Tunisia,Jordan,Lebanon and Yemen take to the streets to demand Jeffersonian democracy or do they just want to get rid of the tyrants.

It is clear to me they just want to get rid of the tyrants . If these countries rid themselves of their tyrants look for the Saudi's and oil emirates to also go.

In Egypt the military may take over running the government, only because the Muslim Brotherhood may feel they are better off in some sort of power sharing with the army.

But make no mistake in all of these governments in the end these countries will be ruled by Islamic fundamentalist allies of Iran.

This would be a huge game changer for both the USA and Israel.

For America it will mean the end of relatively cheap oil and this would have a negative impact on the American economy. It will also mean America will have only one ally in the Middle East, Israel.

For Israel it will mean an end of the peace game and a return to whole scale war with nation states and not fighting with the Palestinians and other terrorist.

Yoni pulls no punches as you can see.

An interesting viral YouTube video is here:



One other factor: the Copts are also shaking in their boots, as they are native Egyptian Christians and would be the first to be sacrificed or sought out in a pogrom if the Muslim Brotherhood or other aligned Islamists were to seize power.

And what few people have put into political play for consideration, not just in terms of oil: the Suez Canal. That is specifically why the stock market rumbled on Friday. Oil rocketed close to $100 per barrel just on this issue.

Check the map, and you can see why the Suez Canal is so incredibly important and relevant to the unrest in Egypt (click to expand in much greater detail):


It is said that The Muslim Brotherhood is covertly behind the unrest and stands to gain in Egypt. An excellent background article about the MB here. The Muslim Brotherhood is aligned with al Qaeda and thusly are Sunni. The Muslim Brotherhood has an English website here.

The only hope may be that the bulk of the younger people of Egypt are predominantly secular and will not hold with Muslim Brotherhood power plays just as they rejected Mubarak. Interesting post here.

I submit this: it is not an immediate "given" that Islamists will wrest control of Egypt as they may wish. Yes, they will attempt to take advantage; but there is no guarantee.

BZ