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Bloviating Zeppelin: Nuclear Option

Bloviating Zeppelin

(in-ep-toc'-ra-cy) - a system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Nuclear Option

Politics aside for a moment.

The west must be ready to resort to a pre-emptive nuclear attack to try to halt the "imminent" spread of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction, according to a radical manifesto for a new Nato by five of the west's most senior military officers and strategists.

Information like this does need to be in the public domain, so that various nation-states know NATO, the United States and Europeans have not removed certain options from the table.



Blogger Just John said...

How insensitive! I can hear it now...

On a serious note: A nuclear deterrent isn't much of a deterrent if we don't periodically state our resolve to use it when needed. We've already shown weakness in the face of the enemy from time to time; better to show the other side of the coin a bit.

Wed Feb 06, 04:18:00 AM PST  
Blogger A Jacksonian said...

The main proliferation States are:

1) Iran - Money and determination, but relatively low technical skill in the nuclear area. They depend on technology produced elsewhere, make copies and then find the copies aren't that good. They have gotten technology via Syrian intermediaries from a wide swath of Nations including: Russia, China, France, North Korea, Japan, Germany.

2) North Korea - Diligent but limited expertise in a few areas of missile technology. They have suffered in industrial capacity and design integration. For pure *cash* they have sold technology to Iran, Syria, and Libya. They are also cited in transnational organized crime as the producer of high quality pharma products (better than the western manufacturers in some cases), opiates, small arms and a limited set of gray market goods. They buy from Russia and China for guidance technology and other products that cannot be made in NoKo.

3) Syria - Contains a combination of skilled workforce and readily available phosphate deposits that contain low concentrations of uranium. They have successfully compiled an arsenal of IRBM's via SCUD technology (Russian, Iranian, Chinese and NoKo). Serving as a 'gateway' Nation that plays the ME game well, it has been able to gull a long list of Nations into letting it get its hands on advanced technology: Sweden, Germany, France, UK, Egypt, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, China, Russia, NoKo, Japan. Syria has limited industrial capacity, thus relying on other partners for large scale work. Currently Syria has not signed the Chemical Weapons Convention and is suspected of violating the BioWeapons treaties. Its organized crime families, notably the al-Kassar family, have a long history of diligently utilizing underworld contacts to get *in* with foreign governments and into legal and illegal funding streams.

4) Pakistan - The AQ Khan network has been dismantled to some extent, but not fully. This networked served as a black market organized distribution ring to get prohibited COCOM dual-use technology from advanced Nations (Japan, Germany, France, UK, China, Russia) and also put Pakistan's own tech sector into play. Thus nuclear technology wound up in the hands of Libya, Iran, Iraq under Saddam, Syria, North Korea. The trade network stretched across the Indian Ocean basin: Indonesia, Malaysia, Bangladesh, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Singapore. The obvious hardware parts of the trade by AQK have been halted, but the design and production plans are widely available.

5) China - China has utilized its Army (PLA) to infiltrate industrial and organized crime groups to extend the reach of China's ability to find and procure technology. They subverted Loral in the US and offered cash payments to President Clinton and, in exchange, a 'failed launch' and the 'inability to find the satellite payload' has meant that China underwent a quantum leap forward in missile guidance technology. Their ability to penetrate high tech markets with front companies and then dominate the low end via mass production has subverted a number of National cell phone and networking markets in poor countries across the globe. Following on the heels of coercive trade (via blackmail and legal work) are organized crime groups sent to infiltrate these Nations. China then utilizes those positions to create advanced technology for sale to proliferating States, with NoKo being a main market, but also Iran (especially cruise missile technology) and Syria. China is also facing a slow destabilization of its poor, western provinces that are more ethnically aligned with Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Radical Islamic groups under the Taliban started destabilization in those provinces and China offered high tech skill to the Taliban if they would curb the attacks. Also operating out of western China is the mafia group of the 'Red Don', Semion Mogilevich, and his organization has been implicated in the majority of nuclear deals found and stopped that dealt with terrorist organizations and rogue States. Even imprisoned that singular individual has created multiple banking and commercial fraud schemes to fund criminal enterprises, and China is not immune to *that* and the sophistication of his economics is a vital threat to China and its unorganized debt structure.

6) Russia - Post-Soviet Russia features the incredibly toxic mix of industrial ownership that falls into equal thirds State, Private and Organized Crime. While not showing signs of restarting bioweapons work, the plans and expertise have been cited as being in Iraq and Syria. Likewise advanced nuclear designs, plans and even some components have been widely distributed to NoKo, Pakistan, Iran, Syria and Libya. As mentioned above, multiple organized crime groups operate out of Russia, but not on the 'family' basis, but more along the 'ruthless thug' basis. These groups are cited for all but a few cases of individuals in smuggling nuclear material into and out of Russia. This is distressing as it indicates a two-way criminal traffic to help upgrade nuclear material and components from outside Russia and this trade has gone unremarked upon and has not been confronted by Russia or its neighbors. Long range missile technology is also suspected of having gone out of Russia via similar channels.

Together these six Nations account for the overwhelming majority of all cases of nuclear, chemical and bioweapons technology on the black market. Indonesia, Malaysia and Dubai are particularly worrying transfer points as they serve as large commercial hubs between the Far East and the Middle East, Europe and Africa. Their banking structures, though somewhat better after 9/11, is nowhere near what the West would consider 'accountable'.

Non-State actors have been cited in the low level design and use of chemical, biological and radiological weapons. al Qaeda is cited as having sought nuclear material while in Egypt, Sudan and Afghanistan. Additionally, captured material in Afghanistan points to a rudimentary chemical weapons knowledge and some bioweapons research guided by manuals from Saddam's regime. Hezbollah, as the external Foreign Legion of Iran, must be seen as an outward conduit for its weapons capabilities. Their use of sophisticated cruise missile technology in 2006 to attack not only an Israeli warship but sink a commercial freighter, are *both* crimes against international law, and the broader laws of the sea, law of nation and laws of war. To date Hezbollah has not been seen to utilize Syrian chem/bio weapons and the Syrian police state is not eager to have those deployed on its doorstep without official sanction. The Algerian GIA (and offshoots working with al Qaeda) have been implicated in the ricin plot in the UK, indicating an industrial knowledge of ricin production.

Of all non-State groups the most worrying was Aum Shinrikyo, as its utilization of fully modern technology allowed it to perfect the industrial process of weaponizing anthrax (although it did get the wrong *strain*). A New Scientist report in 1999 indicated that the devices and processes used were fully capable of producing large quantities of weaponized anthrax. Additionally, beyond sarin, Aum was working on Vx nerve agent for its next attack and was doing sophisticated gathering of material for new biotoxins. While the worst part of Aum was shutdown, there remnants have scattered across Europe, the Americas, and SE Asia. A small number of individuals are cited as having migrated to North Korea. Industry in Russia's western provinces sold advanced small arms tech to Aum and, while the KGB was infiltrating them the cult used advanced psychedelic drugs and mind conditioning techniques on those agents. After the demise of the USSR a number of those agents have gone missing inside Russia and Putin's FSB has admitted to not knowing where they are.

So, using nuclear devices is all fine and dandy against a *nation*, but if a terrorist organization or death cult uses them, it is not only an empty threat, but, in the case of a death cult, *welcomed* by them. While we have been playing the nice multi-culti 'don't worry be happy' game, a number of Nations and groups have been practicing the 'how many of these dolts can we kill' game. And don't mind any of those that flow across the borders seeking to get high tech and export it or smuggle it out of the US... I'm sure they are the 'nicest' of folks around. Like the Hezbollah organized crime groups working with Albanian and Algerian ones in the US and Canada. Somehow Hezbollah working with drug gangs in Mexico doesn't seem like a good deal to me.

Or selling Chinese and NoKo gray/black market goods out of Los Angeles.

Or bank fraud across the US and Canada.

Some of them are even here *legally*, donchya know, just forgot to leave when their visa ran out... 'students'!! Students of death.

Wed Feb 06, 04:25:00 AM PST  
Blogger Mark said...

No worries, We all know Queen Hillary or Prince Obama will be so feared by terrorist groups they wouldn't dare assault us! besides, don't you remember? Arabs were the most peaceful creatures in the universe, doing nothing but throwing rose petals at tourists that passed by, until the Idiot Bush pissed them off and forced them into terrorism! when He's gone, all will be right with the world again! and peace and harmony will reign, and arabs the world over will abandon terrorism, violence and weapons for tie died t-shirts and tire tread sandals.

Wed Feb 06, 06:07:00 AM PST  
Blogger Rivka said...

Great post. There is a lot going on in our world that is taking a back seat to the election right now.

Wed Feb 06, 08:21:00 AM PST  
Blogger TexasFred said...

Information like this does need to be in the public domain, so that various nation-states know NATO, the United States and Europeans have not removed certain options from the table.
The 'options' may be there but our POTUS and DoD checked their 'balls' at the door...

JJ hit this one right out of the park... It's amazing how military, present and former, seem to see these things better than most...

Damn shame I'm a FAKE Vet huh??

Wed Feb 06, 09:14:00 AM PST  
Blogger Bloviating Zeppelin said...

TF: I didn't know that was an issue -- you're allegedly a "fake" veteran?


Wed Feb 06, 12:45:00 PM PST  
Anonymous WMD_Maker said...

There is a distinct possibility that Hillary or Osamabama would order a preemtive strike... on a US city!!! If it is already destroyed they cant destroy it!!!

Thu Feb 07, 06:04:00 AM PST  

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