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Israel, Iran and Syria: Two Months To Conflict?

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Bloviating Zeppelin: Israel, Iran and Syria: Two Months To Conflict?

Bloviating Zeppelin

(in-ep-toc'-ra-cy) - a system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Israel, Iran and Syria: Two Months To Conflict?

Candice Lanier in writes:

Recent events in the Middle East would indicated that Israel, Syria and Iran are all making preparations for a regional war. According to information acquired by DEBKAfile, the conflict would likely ensue some time within the next two months.

With that in mind, the Debkafile indicates that Mr Obama contacted Israeli PM Netanyahu in what was typified as an "angry phone call" following the unattributed killing of Iranian nuclear scientist Mostafa Ahmadi-Roshan last Wednesday, Jan. 11th. The Debkafile writes that DC thinks Israel is going to attack Iran unilaterally. Following that phone call from Obama, in two words, Israel was pissed off. Further:
Debkafile's exclusive sources report that the differences between the US and Israel surfaced before the tough Obama-Netanyahu conversation last Thursday (January 12th -BZ). Political, military and intelligence officials privately voiced resentment over the strong and unusual condemnation the White House and Secretary Clinton issued over the death of the Iranian nuclear scientist.

By denying "absolutely" any US involvement in the killing, the administration implicitly pointed the finger at Israel – an unusual act in relations between two friendly governments, especially when both face a common issue as sensitive as a nuclear-armed Iran.

Obama seemed to suspect that Israel staged the killing to torpedo yet another US secret effort to avoid a military confrontation with Iran through back channel contacts with Tehran, while the administration's extreme condemnation is seen as tying in with its all-out campaign to hold Israel back from a unilateral strike.

Again with that in mind, it was Israel's Netanyahu who called off the joint powers exercise, Austere Challenge 12 -- and not Washington as reported -- because, as Debkafile notes:
Netanyahu acted when he judged the Obama administration's resolve to preempt a nuclear Iran to be flagging. His action also aimed at freeing Israel's hands for a unilateral strike on Iran's nuclear sites - if necessary.

Finally, from Debkafiles:
The new round of European sanctions will not stop Iran's pursuit of a nuclear weapon, Israel's Defense Minister Ehud Barak warned in a radio interview Tuesday, Jan. 24. debkafile: The Obama administration and EU delayed oil sanctions to July 1 for back-channel contacts to ripen and produce a fresh round of nuclear talks with Tehran. Barak stressed Israel's hand was always near the trigger and advised taking "very seriously" Israel's military option which had not been taken off the table.
LinkTo me, it appears obvious that Israel is on its own. Mr Obama has made it abundantly clear that he is no friend of Israel but still manages to find time to honor various and sundry Islamic persons and events, despite their clear goals.

Any intervention by any country or entity into Iran with regard to its nuclear program will be painful, very painful, for the United States or any Western Nation dependent upon Middle Eastern oil. I've written about this countless times, most recently here.

On the other hand, when the whip comes down, please remember that it was Mr Obama, the Demorats and the Religious Left who REFUSED to allow a Canadian oil pipeline into the country so that LOCAL and not MIDDLE EASTERN oil could more readily be supplied to the country.

We are sitting, ourselves, on the Bakken Reserves -- an oil field that is thought to be equal or larger than any extant in the Middle East. We have large, untapped fields of natural gas. We have huge fields of oil off our very own coasts. And another large field in Alaska's ANWR.

All of which we are NOT allowed to tap, so that we are FORCED to rely on the political intransigence of Middle Eastern countries, the chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz, and all the hate and discontent that naturally brings.

When the lights go out, when the gas stops, when heating oil deliveries cease, perhaps it's time for these four words: "Thank you, Mr Obama."



Blogger Bushwack said...

Very good BZ. And as a side note I'd like to assist with a few possible scenarios.

1.75/25 odds that No military action will occur before the Nov elections. The reaons is simple. Israel realizes the current POTUS is closer to Carter than Reagan in his views of the middle east. Israel will need FULL backing from the USA since China and Russia are Iran's biggest oil consumer. They will be hit hardest by any conflict in Iran.

2. Israel MAY strike at a facility about a month or two before the elections BECAUSE: Israel would know that any variation from support for Israel would surely sink Obama's chances of re-election. So the gamble would be Obama's re-election vs support. A Gamble Obama wouldn't take and he'd be forced to fully support our ally.

Iran closing the straight wouldn't work either, the response from the naval powers would be epic and Iran knows this. They will rattle sabres all over the place but in the end, they'll be just yapping.

I think Israel will continue it's pursuit of nuke scientists in the mean time, but if it looks like Iran is close to a nuke all bets are off. Israel will not allow it to happen and in secret ALL the arab states will be happy with Israel's actions.

Wed Jan 25, 09:50:00 PM PST  
Blogger Well Seasoned Fool said...

Ain't it a bitch we need to seek foreign news sources instead of our own MSM to understand what is going on in the world?

Thu Jan 26, 09:35:00 AM PST  

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