Israel & Iran: The Nuke Issue

Israel Vice PM: Military strike can hit all of Iran's nuclear facilities

Speaking at Herzliya Conference, Moshe Ya’alon calls the possibility of a nuclear Iran a 'nightmare to the free world,' says explosion at Iranian missile base targeted missile system that would have threatened the U.S.

All of Iran's nuclear faculties are vulnerable to a military strike, Vice Prime Minister and Strategic Affairs Minister Moshe Ya’alon said on Thursday, calling the potential of a nuclear Iran a "nightmare to the free world."

But here's the point:

Speaking of the possibility of a military strike of Iran's nuclear facilities, the vice PM said that "the West has the ability to strike, but as long as Iran isn't convinced that there's a determination to follow through with it, they'll continue with their manipulations."

That said, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta commented on the issue, reported in The Washington Post:

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta has a lot on his mind these days, from cutting the defense budget to managing the drawdown of U.S. forces in Afghanistan. But his biggest worry is the growing possibility that Israel will attack Iran over the next few months.

Panetta believes there is a strong likelihood that Israel will strike Iran in April, May or June — before Iran enters what Israelis described as a “zone of immunity” to commence building a nuclear bomb. Very soon, the Israelis fear, the Iranians will have stored enough enriched uranium in deep underground facilities to make a weapon — and only the United States could then stop them militarily.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t want to leave the fate of Israel dependent on American action, which would be triggered by intelligence that Iran is building a bomb, which it hasn’t done yet.

Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak may have signaled the prospect of an Israeli attack soon when he asked last month to postpone a planned U.S.-Israel military exercise that would culminate in a live-fire phase in May. Barak apologized that Israel couldn’t devote the resources to the annual exercise this spring.

President Obama and Panetta are said to have cautioned the Israelis that the United States opposes an attack, believing that it would derail an increasingly successful international economic sanctions program and other non-military efforts to stop Iran from crossing the threshold. But the White House hasn’t yet decided precisely how the United States would respond if the Israelis do attack.

The Obama administration is conducting intense discussions about what an Israeli attack would mean for the United States: whether Iran would target U.S. ships in the region or try to close the Strait of Hormuz; and what effect the conflict and a likely spike in oil prices would have on the fragile global economy.

Let me be blunt: there is only one reason that Leon Panetta would publicly proffer a timetable for Israel to potentially attack Iran. And that is to actively foil said potential attack by Israel, because the United States' policy is to be uninvolved and to, instead, rely upon harsh language, sarcasm and "sanctions." Mr Obaka would still rather "monitor" and be "concerned."

And this in the face of new information indicating that Iran has no problem whatsoever in hitting the US on its own sovereign soil, as reported here by The Washington Post.

I've already written about the threatened closing of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and its likely results. That would be here, and here, and here, and here.

This may be a very dangerous and unstable summer on any number of levels. Be forewarned and forearmed.

BZ