The Coming Clash With Iran

Robosquirrel at People Covered In Fish had a very salient post on Sunday which pointed out a most unnerving linkage between Iran and Venezuela -- countries helmed by unstable leaders; and I am being very kind here.

I would submit: the world will simply not tolerate Iran's President Ahmadinejad possessing nuclear weapons. The United States will not, Israel will not, Britain will not.

On Tuesday, January 10th, Iran announced that it has resumed work on its uranium-enrichment program after two years. Seals placed on equipment at the enrichment plant at Natanz in 2003 by the International Atomic Energy Agency were removed, initiating a call by the British, French and German foreign ministers that Iran be referred to the UN Security Council for violating its nuclear treaty obligations.

Even Russia expressed "concern," and the ministers also called for a special session of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Yet given the semi-ridiculous and, dare I say, useless nature of the Security Council, the world is unlikely to see anything more serious than sanctions -- or perhaps harsh sarcasm. Maybe Kofi can initiate the "Neutrons for Food" program?

For his part, Kofi Annan said Iran is still "interested in serious and constructive negotiations." For those with the faintest dust mote of common sense: what do you surmise the removal of those seals really means? Eh?

The Washington Post reported yesterday that many countries are actually supporting the US in its stance regarding Iran:

China and Russia agreed with the United States, Britain, Germany and France on Monday that Iran must completely suspend its nuclear program, the British Foreign Office said. Although the countries failed to agree on whether Iran's case should be referred to the U.N. Security Council, the Europeans applied new pressure on the Iranian government by calling for an emergency meeting of the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency on Feb. 2.

With all six nations declaring that they sought a diplomatic solution to the escalating confrontation with Iran, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered a glimmer of hope for a compromise. Putin said the Iranian government was considering a proposal from Moscow that Russia would produce enriched uranium for Iran, to ensure the material could be used only for peaceful purposes.

Iran has adamantly reserved the right to develop its nuclear program, stating that its intention is to produce peaceful nuclear energy. But many world leaders are increasingly alarmed by the attitude of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad -- who has called for Israel to be "wiped off the map" -- and fear he could be trying to build nuclear bombs. Intense deliberations began last week after the Iranian government ordered the removal of seals on equipment at an enrichment plant where it had ceased operations two years ago.

"The onus is on Iran to act to give the international community confidence that its nuclear program has exclusive peaceful purposes," said British Foreign Minister Jack Straw. Straw added that confidence in Iran has been "sorely undermined by its history of concealment and deception."

Allow me at this point, if I might, to ask the question that I have heard or read absolutely no one pose: why does Iran need a nuclear power program at all?

You might respond: to ensure power for its own people, its own needs, to allow it to grow, expand, prosper and power its growing industries.

Oh really? Were you aware that, as of the most recent 2004 statistics available, Iran is the 4th largest producer of oil in the world. The CIA World Factbook says "relatively high oil prices in recent years have enabled Iran to amass some $30 billion in foreign exchange reserves, but have not eased economic hardships such as high unemployment and inflation. The proportion of the economy devoted to the development of weapons of mass destruction remains a contentious issue with leading Western nations."

Iran has so much oil that petroleum constitutes 80% of its gross exports. Iran expects to earn $44 billion from oil sales in the year to March 20, an Iranian oil official said.

So let's do the extrapolation: Iran is almost awash in oil. It has a great amount of money coming in from these export sales. Iran could easily decide to build all the conventionally fuel-fired power plants it could possibly want -- certainly more than the US could now build.

But that's simply not sufficient. It needs to go with nuclear power.

Am I the only one to which this rings just a tad hollow?

We all know what this is about: a maniacal religious Islamic zealot seeking to become a nuclear weapons power, who already has a desire to wipe Israel completely off the map and any western nation not steeped in Islam.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said, on 10-28-2005:

I must say that you have chosen a very valuable title for your gathering [World Without Zionism]. Many are sowing the seeds of defeat and despair in this all-out war between the Islamic world and the Infidel Front, hoping to dishearten the Islamic world.

Such people are using words like “it’s not possible”. They say how could we have a world without America and Zionism? But you know well that this slogan and goal can be achieved and can definitely be realised."

Ahmadinejad is speaking not just about eliminating Israel, but America. Did you read that? America.

I say it's about time we begin seriously taking Ahmadinejad's rhetoric at stark face value.