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Bloviating Zeppelin: Iran Not So Dangerous

Bloviating Zeppelin

(in-ep-toc'-ra-cy) - a system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.

Wednesday, December 05, 2007

Iran Not So Dangerous

Do you believe this? Or do you believe there is an underlying political motivation for the issuance of this National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) and its timing? From Reuters:
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A new U.S. intelligence report says Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and it remains on hold, contradicting the Bush administration's earlier assertion that Tehran was intent on developing a bomb.

The National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) released on Monday could undermine U.S. efforts to convince other world powers to agree on a third package of U.N. sanctions against Iran for defying demands to halt uranium enrichment activities.

John Bolton himself, on the national Tom Sullivan radio show this Tuesday, said the NIEs are "very political" and he wonders about the veracity of the estimate itself. Further, Bolton says, it calls into issue the very confidence of our entire intelligence system.

In my opinion, if Congress wants to do what's right, then the Senate and the House should hold hearings on the efficacy of our intelligence community in light of its new estimate that Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003.
  • Did it or didn't it?
  • What is the true quality of our intelligence?
  • How can we get intelligence that is not compromised by politicalization?
  • Is the tail wagging the national dog?

Why did President Bush receive information last week about an event that occurred, according to the NIE, four years ago?

Further, consider: these are the official members of the United States Intelligence Community:

How does one possibly integrate 18 intelligence agencies and NOT have them rife and corrupt with all makes and manners of politics, backbiting, stabbing, undermining, competition, grandstanding and out-and-out sabotage?



Blogger A Jacksonian said...

The thing about the NIE is that most folks only want the findings... having come from the IC I concentrated on the rest of the document so I could put the findings into perspective... I am most disturbed about the route they have taken for producing such cross-IC pieces.

It is a prime demonstration of how bureaucracy drives executive level 'analysis', not the actual multivariate views of the IC getting a fair hearing. In fact it is just the opposite of that... and the level of self-justification for ODNI is interesting in what it provides. And in what it doesn't say.

Because of that the entire NIE is suspect. Not due to its findings, but due to the process that created it.

Tue Dec 04, 03:21:00 PM PST  
Blogger Gayle said...

I just did a post on this, BZ, and no, I don't believe it. I think it's pure and utter BS!

Tue Dec 04, 03:39:00 PM PST  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

First, BZ, if Iran is NOT developing actively devoloping a nuclear programme, then why are they still enriching plutoniium?

Second, I think the position of Director of National Intelligence is a completely redundant position. That's what the Director of the CIA is for and to have created another post was, in my opinion, further downgrading the Agency at a time when they are most needed.

Tue Dec 04, 03:54:00 PM PST  
Blogger Ranando said...

I think there's a lot more to this than we know.

Maybe behind the scenes we have been talking with Iran and I say maybe. Iran's support for the insurgency in Iraq is down, Deaths in Iraq are down maybe because of Iran stopping so much support.

Maybe this was a way to say thanks.

Tue Dec 04, 04:02:00 PM PST  
Blogger Rivka said...

You are SPOT on. GREAT POST.

Tue Dec 04, 04:54:00 PM PST  
Blogger Rivka said...

And one more thing, I must answer your question.. I don't believe this new report. I am with Gayle.

It wouldn't shock me if this was a cooked up plan led by the libs.

Tue Dec 04, 04:58:00 PM PST  
Blogger Ranando said...

Cooked up by the libs, are you kidding me?

Did you see who wrote this report, good God.

Get a grip people.

If your not going to read the report and realize who wrote it and Bush just saw it, what Bullshit.

Tue Dec 04, 05:17:00 PM PST  
Blogger Mark said...

Iran is still enriching uranium, Iran is still developing ballistic missiles, the only thing they supposedly "Quit" is developing a bomb design. but, thanks to A.Q. Khan , they probably have a workable design bought and paid for. so how would anybody consider them harmless?

you would have to completely Ignore their own stated goals and aims, AND the fact they continue to enrich uranium, design and test mid to long range missiles, and continue to build deep underground bunkers.

Tue Dec 04, 05:34:00 PM PST  
Blogger Mark said...

oh, and let's remember the US intel community didn't know India had a nuke program until their underground tests let the cat out of the bag, same with Pakistan. we didn't know Libya had a program until Quadaffi surrendered it, AND these same blokes are the ones who insisted Saddam had WMD's.

the US could save ourselves a lot of embarrassment and money if we closed the CIA and would buy George a subscription to Jane's intelligence review. bureaucracies are NOT THE PLACE to find intelligence of any kind, whatsoever.....

Tue Dec 04, 06:32:00 PM PST  
Blogger shoprat said...

Iran is trying to pull the wool over our eyes. End of story.

Tue Dec 04, 07:01:00 PM PST  
Blogger Bloviating Zeppelin said...

AJ: And that's the perfect point: if the process is corrupted, then how do we defrag it? And that brings up the overarching question: what do we trust, what do we not trust? And if the process is suspect, is our entire national policy -- not just now, but yesterday and tomorrow -- predicated upon a few WAGs?

Gayle: I'll go there and read it shortly.

Loon: I forgot to add: Israel thinks the NIE is a pile of fecal material. They said it less impolitely, however.

Ranando: but does this administration have the capability to spin and hurl wheels within wheels? I am not convinced.

Mark: and there's another point: what if Iran backed down from its more OVERT form of nuclear weapons creation only to place all their eggs in the "we can simply purchase it" market. And I'm glad to see that I wasn't the only one to purchase JIR before it simply priced me out of the program!

Shop: I tend to lean your direction.


Tue Dec 04, 07:38:00 PM PST  
Blogger Mark said...

well BZ, if enough cash were to come across the palm of the right cash strapped Russian officer, I'll bet Bombs, plans for bombs, and enriched uranium could be had by certain groups. (as we've seen in the news recently) Iran and Russia are getting cozier with each other. I'll bet Iran already HAS a design by now, but is biding time, I dunno how many centrifuge cascades Iran has working now, but a lot of estimates put them a couple of years away from having enough u235 to build a bomb.

Tue Dec 04, 08:09:00 PM PST  
Blogger Bushwack said...

I think we have to look at the timing of this.
in 2003 we invaded Iraq under the presumption of WMD's, IF Iran halted their program at that time it was because they thought they could be next.

The larger question is:
WHY is it just coming out now? Did GW bury it? or did the intel community hold it as an ace in the hole? what would they gain from it?

The only winners of this NIE report being let out now is the Dems, and Iran.

Bush appears dumber than normal, and Iran is saying I told you so...

Either way It smells bad to me.

The fact that Israel doesn't buy it, worries me. The Israeli's have the most to lose by being passive with Iran.
One nuke on Israel destroys it, so I don't blame them for being cautious.

Wed Dec 05, 12:43:00 AM PST  
Blogger Bloviating Zeppelin said...

All things considered, if Israel doesn't appear to buy off on Iran's willful abandonment of its nuclear weapons program, let us examine: why might that be? And why might we believe it or embrace it? Is it perhaps because the US, thousands of miles away, may not have as much invested in the theory of a nuclear-tipped Iran as Israel? Might it be because Israel has more to lost than the US? Might it be because Israel could possibly have operatives in or around the area and, as they live in the region, could perhaps have better and more complete intel than others? Or is Israel nothing but a nation-state of fretting, busybody pansies?


Wed Dec 05, 06:12:00 AM PST  
Blogger TexasFred said...

Fact, Bush is as dumb as a box of rocks.

Fact, Bush had a hard-on for Saddam, that's why we went to Iraq.

Fact, IF we hit Iran, we'd better be damn sure of our footing and our allies, Iran IS aligned with Russia.

If Iran really has ended their nuclear program, and I hope they have, because, for one reason, I can't bear to hear Bush make himself look any dumber, nukaler and all, seriously, I hope they have ended it, but I doubt they have, BUT, and this is the BIG BUT, if they are using it for POWER GENERATION only, if that can be assured, well, let em have it, if it's NOT for peaceful purposes only, the world can't be held under the thumb of some idiotic moonbats Islamic murderers...

Wed Dec 05, 06:47:00 AM PST  
Blogger The WordSmith from Nantucket said...

How does one possibly integrate 18 intelligence agencies and NOT have them rife and corrupt with all makes and manners of politics, backbiting, stabbing, undermining, competition, grandstanding and out-and-out sabotage?

It's the very thing Kenneth Timmerman talks about in his book, "Shadow Warriors", pointing out specific individuals within the CIA and State Department who, from day one, have actively worked to sabotage and undermine the Bush Administration based on political partisanship and personal agendas.

Wed Dec 05, 12:24:00 PM PST  
Blogger bigwhitehat said...

I can't believe anybody even cares about the NIE. It is the same type of stupidity that I heard in the 80s about trusting communists.

Let's see, the same part of the world that provides the greatest portion of petroleum has many countries without any military entities. One country with a complete military has sought to produce nukes. That same country frequently vocalizes their intent to control the region.

Hmmm...... No cause for alarm?

Iranians pay the equivalent of $6 per gallon for gasoline. They produce an enormous amount of oil. This should be a key indicator to the world that this country is not interested in energy. If they were they would build some refineries and lower their own fuel costs. Iran is interested in one thing; bullying the world.

Thu Dec 06, 09:07:00 PM PST  
Blogger Bob said...

Kenneth Timmerman has a book out that answers your question.

Fri Dec 07, 08:37:00 PM PST  

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